The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has issued its November 2025 Climate Outlook, forecasting that the ongoing nationwide rains will persist throughout the month, though the distribution will be highly uneven across the country. The forecast highlights a continuing risk of flooding, particularly in western Kenya, while cautioning residents across the entire nation about associated health and safety hazards.
Rainfall Distribution and Intensity
The KMD report indicates that regions expected to experience near to above-average rainfall include the counties within the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, and the Central and South Rift Valley. These areas are specifically noted as likely to receive occasional moderate rainfall, a point of serious concern given that soils are already saturated, significantly increasing the likelihood of landslides and flooding.
Conversely, areas forecast to receive near to below-average or depressed rainfall include the Highlands East of the Rift Valley (a region that encompasses Nairobi County), the Southeastern lowlands, the Coast, and most of the Northeast of the country. Despite the overall continuation of the wet season, the KMD noted that rainfall will be unevenly distributed, with several parts of the country expected to face intermittent dry spells.
Associated Risks and Health Concerns
Despite the varied rainfall expectations, the entire nation is expected to experience warmer-than-usual temperatures throughout November. The combination of persistent rain in the west and general warmth elevates several risks:
- Flooding and Dry Spells: There is a high possibility of floods over the western region of the country due to heavy precipitation on saturated ground. Conversely, the eastern parts are warned to expect prolonged dry spells, despite being in the short rains season.
- Health Hazards: The KMD has issued a health alert due to the weather patterns. Vector-borne diseases like malaria are expected to increase in wet areas with stagnant water and poor drainage. Simultaneously, higher incidences of respiratory infections are forecast for the dry, dusty regions.
Public Safety and Water Conservation Directives
In light of the hazardous conditions, the KMD has issued specific public safety advisories:
- Storm Safety: Citizens are strongly advised not to walk or drive through flooded areas. During a storm, people should not shelter under trees or near grilled windows to minimize the risk of lightning strikes.
- Water Management: Residents in Eastern and Coastal Kenya, where depressed rainfall is expected, are encouraged to proactively harvest and store rainwater and adopt highly efficient water-use practices to manage potential water stress.
